Unclear Nuclear

It is rather amusing to see everyone from Condi Rice to her many generations removed predecessor Henry Kissinger, not to mention ignorant politicians, sundry bureaucrats and petty statesmen, trying to rush India into operationalising the so called nuclear deal.  

The good Doctor, himself a bureaucrat of no mean standing, talks of not missing the bus. None of these worthies knows anything about the technology or the business they are pushing so vigorously.

The fact is that the last nuclear power plant was commissioned in the U.S. around decades ago. The famous bus, which takes off every day, has not had a paying passenger since 1973 when the last such project in the U.S. was initiated. This project has had all kinds of delays and will be commissioned only in 2012, maybe. Basically the market, which is the king in the U.S., has not found it prudent to fund any new projects since 1973 even though the country has a serious balance of energy problem.

This is not because there is a shortage of project proposals but because there are serious unaddressed concerns about waste disposal, costs and safety.

The waste disposal issue remains as far from a solution today as it was ten years ago. The capital and operating costs make sense only under extreme assumptions of assigning financial costs to non-financial aspects of fossil fuel based plants while ignoring all such issues of nuclear plants.

True some progress has been made during this period on the safety front. But even today, the best that can be said is that there has been no nuclear plant meltdown since the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island affairs.

On the other hand there can be no meltdown of a non-nuclear power plant . Surely it does not take a great mind to see the difference.

Having said all this, let me add that I would love to see nuclear power technology move from the wishful thinking stage to everything its proponents claim it to be so that India can really and truly become energy independent.

For now please let the Blueline bus, however attractive in theory, pass. It is lethal.

Next
The Undead Deal
First
The Nuclear Mess

The Nuclear Mess

We seem to be rushing headlong into a civil nuclear deal with the United States. The Indian media, barring a few smaller newspapers, at this time seems to think it no big deal.

To put nuclear power and the United States in perspective:

• The U.S. gets less than 20% of its power from nuclear plants
• Construction of its last nuclear power plant started in 1973 and is expected to be completed only in 2012 (update in Sep. 2012 - No sign yet.)
• Of the 253 plants ever started only 132 have been completed
• Of these 27 were prematurely and permanently shut down due to reliability and cost issues.
• Another 35 have failed at least once and been down for a year or more
• Even the successful ones average 27 days downtime every year
• There have been 8 accidents with losses ranging from $150 mn to $2,400 mn
• Over 60,000 tons of radio-active waste has been accumulated with no idea of how to dispose of it.

To put nuclear technology and the rest of the world in perspective: of the 30 or so nuclear plants currently under construction, only one is in the west, an AREVA-Siemens joint effort in Finland.

What are we getting into

Quite apart from the desirability or otherwise of nuclear power, there is the question of what we are committing ourselves to. It is now clear the Indian proponents of the deal are either naïve or charlatans or both. The Americans on the other hand never tried to Hyde their intentions. The Hyde act empowering the U.S. President to enter into this pact requires India to virtually give up nuclear testing. India is free to test but then the U.S. has a right to seek return of all technology and equipment. Effectively this means no weapons testing in return for technology.

 
The only political entity opposed to the deal is the communists. I never thought I would live to be on the same side as the left parties on any issue, but thank god for the Karats of this world. Whatever their motives, and however misguided they may be in most matters but in opposing this deal they are right on the ball.

The Indian Prime Minister has touched a new low and is trying some emotional political blackmail by threatening to resign. He has learnt how to play on the Left's need to feel important in the present set up and their reluctance to upset the apple cart. I do hope the comrades will show some backbone this time.

Where is the fire to sign off on the deal in a hurry?
If we do want access to this flawed technology, the time to resolve all issues pertaining to testing and technology return is now. Remember, the business of the United States is business, they will be happy to relieve us of our money whenever we let them. 

Once we start pouring money into nuclear technology we will have no bargaining strength. The more money we invest, a hundred times more vulnerable our economy and industry will become to withdrawal blackmail. That happens to be the ratio of investment in power generation to investment in the economic activity supported by it. We are the buyers here, if we do not know how to buy well, let us learn from Wall Mart or IBM or Tata or Birla.

The whole nation needs to unite in a bid to stop this government from getting us on to the nuclear flying carpet with the U.S. government reserving the right to yank it out from under us the moment we step out of line.

Next: No Balls Left