Nuclear Lies

I could not believe my ears and eyes. During the debate on the ignoble nuclear deal, the Good Doctor actually stood up and proclaimed that there was nothing in the 123 agreement to stop India from conducting a nuclear test should it feel the necessity. That is as may be.

He did not want to, or the applause from the ruling party benches did not allow him to, elaborate the chain of consequences that will follow.

Are our national newspapers, leading opinion writers, political commentators really so stupid that they can not see that the deal we are making now could hobble our generations to come in terms of freedom to act that our forefathers fought hard for.

Next
The Undead Deal

First 
The Nuclear Mess

Unclear Nuclear

It is rather amusing to see everyone from Condi Rice to her many generations removed predecessor Henry Kissinger, not to mention ignorant politicians, sundry bureaucrats and petty statesmen, trying to rush India into operationalising the so called nuclear deal.  

The good Doctor, himself a bureaucrat of no mean standing, talks of not missing the bus. None of these worthies knows anything about the technology or the business they are pushing so vigorously.

The fact is that the last nuclear power plant was commissioned in the U.S. around decades ago. The famous bus, which takes off every day, has not had a paying passenger since 1973 when the last such project in the U.S. was initiated. This project has had all kinds of delays and will be commissioned only in 2012, maybe. Basically the market, which is the king in the U.S., has not found it prudent to fund any new projects since 1973 even though the country has a serious balance of energy problem.

This is not because there is a shortage of project proposals but because there are serious unaddressed concerns about waste disposal, costs and safety.

The waste disposal issue remains as far from a solution today as it was ten years ago. The capital and operating costs make sense only under extreme assumptions of assigning financial costs to non-financial aspects of fossil fuel based plants while ignoring all such issues of nuclear plants.

True some progress has been made during this period on the safety front. But even today, the best that can be said is that there has been no nuclear plant meltdown since the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island affairs.

On the other hand there can be no meltdown of a non-nuclear power plant . Surely it does not take a great mind to see the difference.

Having said all this, let me add that I would love to see nuclear power technology move from the wishful thinking stage to everything its proponents claim it to be so that India can really and truly become energy independent.

For now please let the Blueline bus, however attractive in theory, pass. It is lethal.

Next
The Undead Deal
First
The Nuclear Mess

Sense & Security

Finally good sense seems to have prevailed on the leader of the ruling coalition, even if it is force fed by political compulsions. The nuclear deal with the U.S. is on the back burner for now. Hats off to the comrades. They delivered when it counted.

However, in the seemingly unending and ever intriguing drama of the nuclear deal one fact seems to have gone unnoticed. One of the major planks of Dr Manmohan Singh's unflinching support for the deal has been the energy security the deal, he says, will bring India. Dr. Singh had more or less laid his political career, on loan from the Gandhi family in any case, on the line for the deal.

I wonder how many people, including the good Doctor, are aware of the fact that a serious debate is happening within the American political-economic circles right now on the question of energy security for the U.S. And guess where atomic energy features in this debate? NOWHERE!

Next
Unclear Nuclear

First 
The Nuclear Mess

Muddy Unclear Waters

New developments bring me back to the Indo-American nuclear deal.

The left has shown surprising spunk in standing up to the government so far. However, there is more and more talk of opposition to the "overall strategic relationship". Some other critics in the media keep referring to American actions in the middle east.

I am afraid, the opposition to the deal is diluted rather than strengthened by the obvious anti-Americanism on account of economic dogma or religious sympathies.

Let us not lose sight of the fact that we as a country and many of us as individuals do have and will continue to have multifaceted relationships with America and Americans whether the nuclear deal lives or, hopefully, dies.

To ensure widespread support for the later outcome, there is a need to keep the discussion focussed on the merits of the situation which are incontrovertibly awesome.

Next
Nuclear Sense & Security 

First 
The Nuclear Mess

Unending Unclear Saga

The establishment is surprisingly adept at obfuscating the facts whenever the need arises.

Either that or we send MORONS to negotiate international agreements. Has there EVER been any doubt in any one's mind that the Hyde Act overrides any and all agreements the U.S. Executive branch might enter into.

Either the Indian government believes its own propaganda or holds the entire nation in contempt. Why don't we get the message when official American spokesmen repeatedly point out that NO, India can not hold a nuclear test without having to face action under the RETURN clauses.

Which, apart from leaving us decades behind where we are today, will cripple all economic activity that we will build around atomic power generated by plants set up under this once-in-a-lifetime deal. Investments around power facilities typically involve ten to twelve times the capital costs of generating power itself.

Once and for all, is there ANY linguistic trick which will hide the fact that this deal effectively over-rides Indian sovereignty in nuclear testing?

Where do we go from here? We say to the U.S. - Thank you very much. Please keep your technology, equipment and fuel.

This post also, I hope, completes my outpourings on this subject!

ps: This turned out to be wishful thinking, so:

Next
Unclear Nuclear
First 
The Nuclear Mess

Not dishonourable, just stupid

The parliament has taken up the nuclear deal for discussion. The good Doctor Singh is being a bit disingenuous when he says the nuclear pact with the U.S. is an honourable deal and that it is a non-negotiable take-it-or-leave it situation.

Of course it is honourable but that does not stop it from being gravely harmful to India's interests. Moreover, unless hitherto unrevealed commitments have been made, everything is still negotiable. In this case, as in some others, the cabinet may not be the best judge of what is good for India.

We are, in fact, about to give away the rights of generations to come in return for a warm handshake, a fake smile and a fake photo-op followed by some temporary and illusionary benefits.

Do we really want nuclear energy? Is it really the most economic, the cleanest, the quickest-off-the-block way to add power generation capacity? In the long run, very probably yes.

At this point of time, the answer to each question would at best be "debatable" and at worst a sturdy "NO". It is certainly not the cheapest or the safest option operationally and there is no known waste-disposal method.

So wake up dear Doctor and stop behaving as if you are being prevented from taking the Condi and the Bush for a cup of tea. It is they who need to be stopped from taking you for a ride. Which we will pay for today and our children and their seed will pay for forever.

Next
The Unending Nuclear Saga
First 
The Nuclear Mess

No Balls Left

I was counting on the Left parties of all shades to put brakes on the Government's march towards a nuclear deal with the United States by voting against it in the parliament. Does not look likely.

Today it has become clear. The left has no principles, no foresight, no long term view of their place in this country and, of course, no backbone.

In the forthcoming vote on the nuclear pact, they will, please note ladies and gentlemen, walk out. They will not, please note again, vote against the 123 agreement although they find it unacceptable.

Update Sep. 2012: In the event the vote by the Reds became irrelevant when the Samajvadi party guided by then guru Amar Singh decided to vote for the nuclear deal with the U.S.

Next
Not Dishonourable, Just Stupid
First 
The Nuclear Mess

The Nuclear Mess

We seem to be rushing headlong into a civil nuclear deal with the United States. The Indian media, barring a few smaller newspapers, at this time seems to think it no big deal.

To put nuclear power and the United States in perspective:

• The U.S. gets less than 20% of its power from nuclear plants
• Construction of its last nuclear power plant started in 1973 and is expected to be completed only in 2012 (update in Sep. 2012 - No sign yet.)
• Of the 253 plants ever started only 132 have been completed
• Of these 27 were prematurely and permanently shut down due to reliability and cost issues.
• Another 35 have failed at least once and been down for a year or more
• Even the successful ones average 27 days downtime every year
• There have been 8 accidents with losses ranging from $150 mn to $2,400 mn
• Over 60,000 tons of radio-active waste has been accumulated with no idea of how to dispose of it.

To put nuclear technology and the rest of the world in perspective: of the 30 or so nuclear plants currently under construction, only one is in the west, an AREVA-Siemens joint effort in Finland.

What are we getting into

Quite apart from the desirability or otherwise of nuclear power, there is the question of what we are committing ourselves to. It is now clear the Indian proponents of the deal are either naïve or charlatans or both. The Americans on the other hand never tried to Hyde their intentions. The Hyde act empowering the U.S. President to enter into this pact requires India to virtually give up nuclear testing. India is free to test but then the U.S. has a right to seek return of all technology and equipment. Effectively this means no weapons testing in return for technology.

 
The only political entity opposed to the deal is the communists. I never thought I would live to be on the same side as the left parties on any issue, but thank god for the Karats of this world. Whatever their motives, and however misguided they may be in most matters but in opposing this deal they are right on the ball.

The Indian Prime Minister has touched a new low and is trying some emotional political blackmail by threatening to resign. He has learnt how to play on the Left's need to feel important in the present set up and their reluctance to upset the apple cart. I do hope the comrades will show some backbone this time.

Where is the fire to sign off on the deal in a hurry?
If we do want access to this flawed technology, the time to resolve all issues pertaining to testing and technology return is now. Remember, the business of the United States is business, they will be happy to relieve us of our money whenever we let them. 

Once we start pouring money into nuclear technology we will have no bargaining strength. The more money we invest, a hundred times more vulnerable our economy and industry will become to withdrawal blackmail. That happens to be the ratio of investment in power generation to investment in the economic activity supported by it. We are the buyers here, if we do not know how to buy well, let us learn from Wall Mart or IBM or Tata or Birla.

The whole nation needs to unite in a bid to stop this government from getting us on to the nuclear flying carpet with the U.S. government reserving the right to yank it out from under us the moment we step out of line.

Next: No Balls Left