The Undead Deal

I am constantly surprised by seemingly intelligent people, who have major media platforms to vent their opinions, proclaiming two impossible things every now and then. The first is that the civilian nuclear deal between India and the U.S. is dead. The second is that the U.S. has imposed this or that deadline.

People, neither of these is going to happen - ever. No deadline is relevant because India is too big now for the U.S. to say that it is no longer open to discuss civilian nuclear co-operation. At the same time India's galloping energy needs will keep it perpetually looking at nuclear power to supplement hydro and fossil fuels. Solar energy and wind energy are not expected by any serious energy planner to play a significant role any time soon.

What can and should happen is that at some point of time in the future, how near or distant I have no way of estimating, a more confident and assertive India should negotiate with a more realistic and less belligerent America a deal which both can live with in perpetuity. The half life of such co-operation, as of the fuel it deals with, will have to be virtually infinite with no scope for either party to blackmail the other to do its bidding either commercially or geo-politically.

The Indian public and the American public already know this. The politicians will learn. The Hyde act can not be by-passed but it can and will have to be repealed.

Postscript: As we all know the deal is now fait accompli. 

Next  The Nuclear Murders
First  The Nuclear Mess

Muddy Unclear Waters

New developments bring me back to the Indo-American nuclear deal.

The left has shown surprising spunk in standing up to the government so far. However, there is more and more talk of opposition to the "overall strategic relationship". Some other critics in the media keep referring to American actions in the middle east.

I am afraid, the opposition to the deal is diluted rather than strengthened by the obvious anti-Americanism on account of economic dogma or religious sympathies.

Let us not lose sight of the fact that we as a country and many of us as individuals do have and will continue to have multifaceted relationships with America and Americans whether the nuclear deal lives or, hopefully, dies.

To ensure widespread support for the later outcome, there is a need to keep the discussion focussed on the merits of the situation which are incontrovertibly awesome.

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Nuclear Sense & Security 

First 
The Nuclear Mess

The Nuclear Mess

We seem to be rushing headlong into a civil nuclear deal with the United States. The Indian media, barring a few smaller newspapers, at this time seems to think it no big deal.

To put nuclear power and the United States in perspective:

• The U.S. gets less than 20% of its power from nuclear plants
• Construction of its last nuclear power plant started in 1973 and is expected to be completed only in 2012 (update in Sep. 2012 - No sign yet.)
• Of the 253 plants ever started only 132 have been completed
• Of these 27 were prematurely and permanently shut down due to reliability and cost issues.
• Another 35 have failed at least once and been down for a year or more
• Even the successful ones average 27 days downtime every year
• There have been 8 accidents with losses ranging from $150 mn to $2,400 mn
• Over 60,000 tons of radio-active waste has been accumulated with no idea of how to dispose of it.

To put nuclear technology and the rest of the world in perspective: of the 30 or so nuclear plants currently under construction, only one is in the west, an AREVA-Siemens joint effort in Finland.

What are we getting into

Quite apart from the desirability or otherwise of nuclear power, there is the question of what we are committing ourselves to. It is now clear the Indian proponents of the deal are either naïve or charlatans or both. The Americans on the other hand never tried to Hyde their intentions. The Hyde act empowering the U.S. President to enter into this pact requires India to virtually give up nuclear testing. India is free to test but then the U.S. has a right to seek return of all technology and equipment. Effectively this means no weapons testing in return for technology.

 
The only political entity opposed to the deal is the communists. I never thought I would live to be on the same side as the left parties on any issue, but thank god for the Karats of this world. Whatever their motives, and however misguided they may be in most matters but in opposing this deal they are right on the ball.

The Indian Prime Minister has touched a new low and is trying some emotional political blackmail by threatening to resign. He has learnt how to play on the Left's need to feel important in the present set up and their reluctance to upset the apple cart. I do hope the comrades will show some backbone this time.

Where is the fire to sign off on the deal in a hurry?
If we do want access to this flawed technology, the time to resolve all issues pertaining to testing and technology return is now. Remember, the business of the United States is business, they will be happy to relieve us of our money whenever we let them. 

Once we start pouring money into nuclear technology we will have no bargaining strength. The more money we invest, a hundred times more vulnerable our economy and industry will become to withdrawal blackmail. That happens to be the ratio of investment in power generation to investment in the economic activity supported by it. We are the buyers here, if we do not know how to buy well, let us learn from Wall Mart or IBM or Tata or Birla.

The whole nation needs to unite in a bid to stop this government from getting us on to the nuclear flying carpet with the U.S. government reserving the right to yank it out from under us the moment we step out of line.

Next: No Balls Left