The Undead Deal

I am constantly surprised by seemingly intelligent people, who have major media platforms to vent their opinions, proclaiming two impossible things every now and then. The first is that the civilian nuclear deal between India and the U.S. is dead. The second is that the U.S. has imposed this or that deadline.

People, neither of these is going to happen - ever. No deadline is relevant because India is too big now for the U.S. to say that it is no longer open to discuss civilian nuclear co-operation. At the same time India's galloping energy needs will keep it perpetually looking at nuclear power to supplement hydro and fossil fuels. Solar energy and wind energy are not expected by any serious energy planner to play a significant role any time soon.

What can and should happen is that at some point of time in the future, how near or distant I have no way of estimating, a more confident and assertive India should negotiate with a more realistic and less belligerent America a deal which both can live with in perpetuity. The half life of such co-operation, as of the fuel it deals with, will have to be virtually infinite with no scope for either party to blackmail the other to do its bidding either commercially or geo-politically.

The Indian public and the American public already know this. The politicians will learn. The Hyde act can not be by-passed but it can and will have to be repealed.

Postscript: As we all know the deal is now fait accompli. 

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Nuclear Lies

I could not believe my ears and eyes. During the debate on the ignoble nuclear deal, the Good Doctor actually stood up and proclaimed that there was nothing in the 123 agreement to stop India from conducting a nuclear test should it feel the necessity. That is as may be.

He did not want to, or the applause from the ruling party benches did not allow him to, elaborate the chain of consequences that will follow.

Are our national newspapers, leading opinion writers, political commentators really so stupid that they can not see that the deal we are making now could hobble our generations to come in terms of freedom to act that our forefathers fought hard for.

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The Undead Deal

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The Nuclear Mess

Unclear Nuclear

It is rather amusing to see everyone from Condi Rice to her many generations removed predecessor Henry Kissinger, not to mention ignorant politicians, sundry bureaucrats and petty statesmen, trying to rush India into operationalising the so called nuclear deal.  

The good Doctor, himself a bureaucrat of no mean standing, talks of not missing the bus. None of these worthies knows anything about the technology or the business they are pushing so vigorously.

The fact is that the last nuclear power plant was commissioned in the U.S. around decades ago. The famous bus, which takes off every day, has not had a paying passenger since 1973 when the last such project in the U.S. was initiated. This project has had all kinds of delays and will be commissioned only in 2012, maybe. Basically the market, which is the king in the U.S., has not found it prudent to fund any new projects since 1973 even though the country has a serious balance of energy problem.

This is not because there is a shortage of project proposals but because there are serious unaddressed concerns about waste disposal, costs and safety.

The waste disposal issue remains as far from a solution today as it was ten years ago. The capital and operating costs make sense only under extreme assumptions of assigning financial costs to non-financial aspects of fossil fuel based plants while ignoring all such issues of nuclear plants.

True some progress has been made during this period on the safety front. But even today, the best that can be said is that there has been no nuclear plant meltdown since the Chernobyl and Three Mile Island affairs.

On the other hand there can be no meltdown of a non-nuclear power plant . Surely it does not take a great mind to see the difference.

Having said all this, let me add that I would love to see nuclear power technology move from the wishful thinking stage to everything its proponents claim it to be so that India can really and truly become energy independent.

For now please let the Blueline bus, however attractive in theory, pass. It is lethal.

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The Undead Deal
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The Nuclear Mess

Muddy Unclear Waters

New developments bring me back to the Indo-American nuclear deal.

The left has shown surprising spunk in standing up to the government so far. However, there is more and more talk of opposition to the "overall strategic relationship". Some other critics in the media keep referring to American actions in the middle east.

I am afraid, the opposition to the deal is diluted rather than strengthened by the obvious anti-Americanism on account of economic dogma or religious sympathies.

Let us not lose sight of the fact that we as a country and many of us as individuals do have and will continue to have multifaceted relationships with America and Americans whether the nuclear deal lives or, hopefully, dies.

To ensure widespread support for the later outcome, there is a need to keep the discussion focussed on the merits of the situation which are incontrovertibly awesome.

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Nuclear Sense & Security 

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The Nuclear Mess

Unending Unclear Saga

The establishment is surprisingly adept at obfuscating the facts whenever the need arises.

Either that or we send MORONS to negotiate international agreements. Has there EVER been any doubt in any one's mind that the Hyde Act overrides any and all agreements the U.S. Executive branch might enter into.

Either the Indian government believes its own propaganda or holds the entire nation in contempt. Why don't we get the message when official American spokesmen repeatedly point out that NO, India can not hold a nuclear test without having to face action under the RETURN clauses.

Which, apart from leaving us decades behind where we are today, will cripple all economic activity that we will build around atomic power generated by plants set up under this once-in-a-lifetime deal. Investments around power facilities typically involve ten to twelve times the capital costs of generating power itself.

Once and for all, is there ANY linguistic trick which will hide the fact that this deal effectively over-rides Indian sovereignty in nuclear testing?

Where do we go from here? We say to the U.S. - Thank you very much. Please keep your technology, equipment and fuel.

This post also, I hope, completes my outpourings on this subject!

ps: This turned out to be wishful thinking, so:

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Unclear Nuclear
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The Nuclear Mess